The Rational and Irrational in Politics: Gaining and Holding Power

Bryan Caplan on the idea of "Totalitarian Political Entrepreneurship". http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2009/07/sorel_on_totali.html

The premise: While guys like Lenin, Hitler, and Mao were hopelessly deluded about many things, their beliefs about how to win and hold power were probably correct. After all, these totalitarian political entrepreneurs managed to pull themselves from obscurity to absolute power - no easy feat.

Good comment by Edgardo E. Barandiaran:

Bryan,

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Perhaps you should distinguish between winning power and holding power. A politician can succeed in winning power by promising irrational policies (Obama is just the latest example). It is much harder to succeed in holding power by implementing irrational policies--you can do it as, for example, Mao did it in China (the only measure of success in holding power is to die of natural causes while still in power--if you have any doubts about this point, talk to Gordon). To illustrate my point of how difficult is to hold power by implementing irrational policies, I suggest that you look at the experience of Argentina since Peron was first elected president (February 1946). There have been presidents that won the position just by default (they were "elected" or "appointed" because any of the strong man could not defeat the other strong men) and others that succeeded to win power promising irrational policies (Alfonsin, Menem, the Kirchners) but had a hard time holding power. Read this application of some of Mancur Olson's ideas to the current situation of Ms. Kirchner (published today in La Nacion)

Cover via Amazon

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?nota_id=1157009&pid=6991666&toi=6261 [In Spanish - applying Mancur Olson's idea of roving thieves and stationary bandits from Power and Prosperity, nice write-up http://www.fff.org/freedom/0900h.asp ]

I am very hesitant to use the term "irrational" to describe the actions of others. Living your life using a rough model of the germ theory of disease is Rational. Not doing so is Irrational. Beyond that, I find those terms too prejudicial for reasoned analysis of other's actions. I would prefer to talk about "actions leading to winning power" and "actions consistent with holding power until natural death". Or, in the case of United States Presidents "actions consistent with holding power for two terms and commanding respect and notoriety and large speaking fees until natural death".

Image by [ r ♥ c e y t ♥ y ] {I br♥ke for bokeh} via Flickr

Obama seems incapable of making the same mistake twice. You can go far with only this skill, in politics, if you have some reserve of good will. Obama will veer to the right to hold on to power, reflexively. To the disgust of progressives, and to the delight of some, and the apathy of the rest.

Emotion - A Tool to bring Daily Behavior in congruence with Moral Goals [Rev 2]

I am struggling here, at my desk at work. I am keenly aware that my daily behavior is not congruent with what I perceive as my highest moral goals, for the short-term and the long-term. I have a lot of excuses for it. My "best" excuse is that I will have some flash of insight, and then and only then, for the rest of my life, I will effortlessly daily work in the direction of my highest moral goals.

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But I know that waiting for this flash of insight is a cop-out. There is no substitute for the daily grind of doing the best you can with your available resources, however meager you consider them to be, now. I have a friend who spoke of someday taking a few years off to meditate in the seclusion of the wilderness and really come to grips with his place in the universe, and how he would manage his future. And I felt so sad, because I know that these deep insights only come to people who are... fully engaged in life and fully engaged with the real word and fully engaged with the daily grind and fully engaged with the mundane and fully engaged with people. You get better insights when you subject yourself to the daily rigors of real world living. Any "truth" you discover in the wilderness will be hollow in comparison.

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But, if I know that to be true, are my actions consistent with that? Am I throwing myself into honest daily work? [I feel] I have to formalize immersing myself in the emotional feeling of what is at stake when we are talking about fulfilling or not fulfilling my highest moral goals, for the short-term and the long-term. Because I am terrified of days slipping away. And I cannot count on those moments of terror alone to spur fruitful effective daily action, and correct priorities towards choices about action and choices about limited resources. Also, in the past I have used over-complicating a formal system as a way to have an excuse to not do it: either, I need time to make the system more rigorous, or, the system being so laborious, that I needed to be in a very resourceful state to even be able to perform the system.

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God, I pray: please help me to utilize emotion to bring my daily behavior in congruence with my highest moral goals, both in the short-term and the long term. So, along with the prayer, what is action I can take now to help myself? The task includes asking the questions that will identify the highest moral goals in the short term and the long term - but not using the desire to be totally and rigorously comprehensive as a stalling technique. The task includes linking those goals to actions I can take now (even if that action is taking some analysis and consideration), and linking those goals to priorities towards choices about action, choices about time, choices about energy (including restorative meditation, etc.) and choices about limited resources. The priorities will suggest certain actions. Be realistic about the free hours available, and the free energy available. We are pushing past the comfort point - so pushing back on daily, habitual, typical activities. We are pushing back on activities that are inconsistent with accomplishment. Remember: We are planning for today, and making the week the smallest unit of balance. The task includes identifying a list of actions to take place in the day or the next few hours. Better too few than too many, because this activity can be done several times a day, if necessary. The actions will also be in a specific order of completion. The task includes identifying a motivating emotional trigger to each action - positive towards the successful completion of the action, and negative towards failing to complete the action. Now, complete the actions in order. If, cannot, then write out the renunciation of that driving highest goal. This is the renunciation of any and all higher goals that could lead to that action, because we want to see the choice with stark consequences. If that does not spur on action, then consider restorative activities (first consider some exercise to get the blood pumping, before laying down. A few moments to meditate is consistent with high levels of productivity and effectiveness as well.) Remember: action _IS_ emotion, emotion _IS_action, and neither is consistent with sitting and coping and wasting time and waiting. Action/emotion put off for later _IS_ action/emotion suppressed _IS_ the embryo of stress & anxiety; when we are talking about effective action. Collect these writings of goals, actions, motivating emotional triggers, and renunciations. Collect the completed tasks and the uncompleted tasks. What to do with the collection: If, over the course of weeks, the renunciations for a particular goal accumulate, then, at the least, that goal has to be discarded now. Leave aside the question of if the goal needs to be discarded permanently - it may need to be discarded several times, each at a point where an excess of capability and resources is accumulated first, and still judged to be lacking, before being discarded permanently. What to do with the collection: See if I am meeting the ideal of the week as the smallest unit of balance, from the written objective evidence. OK, looks good.

planning to read eventually... 'Asimov's Guide to the Bible', along with my red leather bound scholar's bible

"Asimov's Guide to the Bible" is biblical criticism "lite". Nothing too sacrilegious, anyone who enjoyed all their youthful bible studies would appreciate this book. It is secular criticism, but not to worry, it just means Asimov gets straightforwardly to the relevant historical and intellectual record, which is helpful for any bible reader. He doesn't have to tip-toe around issues of creed, which can greatly complicate.

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Erf, I have a stack of books as tall as I am that I need to get through first. My 12 year old daughter reads faster than I do, which is not encouraging for me (it is not hopeless, she is a fast reader and quite disciplined). All of it is non-fiction, because I am just not a fiction type dude.

I want Blankie and my Mommie!

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A Plinky prompt: "You just got one year in jail. You get to bring three things with you to jail. What are they?"

video iPod Books on tape, music, movies, TED lecture videos, Mythbusters, Peggle...

a book on the history of China a lot to learn, better take advantage and get crackin'. I hate my American "history education". How are you going to be a citizen of the world if you are ignorant of world history?

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Rottweiler I had a 110 pound rescued Rottweiler that would love to sleep on my legs (very painful for my legs). Everyday with "Zeus" (the name given by his previous neglectful owner) felt like getting beat up after school, because the dog was so strong and physical, even though he loved me through and through. Some games we would play: (1) "play" biting my hands and arms and feet until throbbing with pain and bruised (2) jumping six feet in the air and bringing me down from a full run (I am college linebacker sized) and "play" biting my hands and arms and feet as I lie dazed on the ground. Remember, these were the games he played with people he *liked*. I am a big guy, so I could wrap my hand around his muzzle, to scold him when he got too out of control. I can't imagine him allowing anyone else to do that. If I was to be physically abused in prison, I would prefer it was by my own loyal Rottweiler.

Once, in college, I injected caffeine directly into my eyeball...

A Plinky prompt: "Go ahead, get a secret off your chest."

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1) I am telling people that I am drinking less coffee, but really I discovered an evil way to "brew" iced coffee with mega-doses of caffeine. http://www.wikihow.com/Use-a-French-Press-or-Cafetiere From the "wikihow" article "If you prefer iced coffee, use cold water and let the French Press stand overnight in the refrigerator. The coffee comes out very sweet and clean-tasting because there is no heat to harm the essential oils." What they don't say in the article is that if you use a super-abundance of ground coffee scoops in your refrigerated French Press, you will get a coffee so thick it is practically gelatinized. And evil. And hyper-caffeinated. And evil. It is the equivalent of cutting off your eyelids with a razor blade, and cauterizing (no messy blood running into your eyes and obscuring your vision). Why I have to keep it secret-ey on the down low: coffee makes me more unbalanced than I already am. Unbalanced me == shouting at clouds while bringing in the newspaper from the drive-way. And other forms of shouting and near fisticuffs and malodorous behavior.

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2) I enjoy smelling inside dog's ears. Musky. 3) I took Lithium for a few years, in a very large dose. Not so much a indication of the magnitude of my mental illness - my body seemed to break it down immediately. I was taking a huge dose, but my blood tests showed only slightly above a trace amount of lithium in my bloodstream. But, any way you measure it, I was a walking time-bomb. Removing an un-medicated version of me from the planet, and replacing it with a medicated version of me, was a gift from my psychiatrist to all of mankind.

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4) I am no longer an Atheist. Closer to the truth is that I am a Deist. I am a little embarrassed because being Deist is so wishy-washy. Ask Churchy-Folk, and they will claim everyone who isn't Stalin or Hitler to be a Deist, even people like Thomas Jefferson and Thomas Paine and Albert Einstein, who went pretty far out of their way to renounce all forms of supernatural or superstitious thinking. But, after a committed bout of Atheism, I have to admit I am a Deist. It better predicts what I would do in a stressful situation, and how I express my human compassion. It comes back to being raised as an Evangelical Lutheran, and considering Jesus as a "Super Hero" when I was a kid. But I still don't recommend Religious people having a conversation about religion with me - I have read enough atheist tracks to still be a serious religious wet blanket. 5) I am a man of few secrets. I used to be so concerned about what other people thought of me, I was tormented practically every waking hour. So much so, I must have "burned-out" that portion of my brain that worries about what other people think about me. That part of my brain "broke", and now I really cannot bring myself to care what other people think. My wife is not pleased with this.

Emotion - A Tool to bring Daily Behavior in congruence with Moral Goals

I am struggling here, at my desk at work. I am keenly aware that my daily behavior is not congruent with what I perceive as my highest moral goals, for the short-term and the long-term. I have a lot of excuses for it. My "best" excuse is that I will have some flash of insight, and then, for the rest of my life, I will effortlessly daily work in the direction of my highest moral goals. But I know that waiting for this flash of insight is a cop-out. There is no substitute for the daily grind of doing the best you can with your available resources, however meager you consider them to be, now.

Image by cobalt123 via Flickr

I have a friend who spoke of someday taking a few years off to meditate and really come to grips with his place in the universe, and how he would manage his future. And I felt so sad, because I know that these insights only come to people who at engaged in life and engaged with the real word and engaged with the daily grind. You get better insights when you subject yourself to the daily rigors of real world living. Any "truth" you discover in the wilderness will be hollow in comparison. But, if I know that to be true, are my actions consistent with that? Am I throwing myself into honest daily work? [I feel] I have to formalize immersing myself in the emotional feeling of what is at state when we are talking about fulfilling or not fulfilling my highest moral goals, for the short-term and the long-term. Because I am terrified of days slipping away. And I cannot count on those moments of terror alone to spur fruitful effective daily action, and correct priorities towards choices about action and choices about limited resources. Also, in the past I have used over-complicating a formal system as a way to have an excuse to not do it: either, I need time to make the system more rigorous, or, the system being so laborious, that I needed to be in a very resourceful state to be able to perform the system.

Image via Wikipedia

God, I pray: please help me to utilize emotion to bring my daily behavior in congruence with my highest moral goals, both in the short-term and the long term. So, along with the prayer, what is action I can take now to help myself? The task includes asking the questions that will identify highest moral goals in the short term and the long term - but not using the desire to be totally and rigorously comprehensive as a stalling technique. The task includes linking those goals to actions I can take now (even if that action is taking some analysis and consideration), and linking those goals to priorities towards choices about action, choices about time, choices about energy (including restorative meditation, etc.) and choices about limited resources. The priorities will suggest certain actions. The task includes identifying a list of actions to take place in the day or the next few hours. Better too few than too many, because this activity can be done several times a day, if necessary. The actions will also be in a specific order of completion. The task includes identifying a motivating emotional trigger to each action - positive towards the successful completion of the action, and negative towards failing to complete the action. Now, complete the actions in order. If, cannot, then write out the renunciation of that driving highest goal. If that does not spur on action, then consider restorative activities (first consider some exercise to get the blood pumping, before laying down. A few moments to meditate is consistent with high levels of productivity and effectiveness as well.)

Image by xiu×5 via Flickr

Collect these writings of goals, actions, motivating emotional triggers, and renunciations. If, over the course of weeks, the renunciation for a particular goal accumulate, then, at the least, that goal has to be discarded now. Leave aside the question of if the goal needs to be discarded permanently - it may need to be discarded several times, each at a point where an excess of capability and resources is accumulated first, and still judged to be lacking, before being discarded permanently. OK, looks good.

The Backfire Effect

By way of "icebrc" on Google Reader, by way of Larry Moran; nice write-up in Mother Jones, by Kevin Drum [ http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2008/09/backfire-effect ]

When Corrections Fail: The persistence of political misperceptions Brendan Nyhan and Jason Reifler http://www.duke.edu/~bjn3/nyhan-reifler.pdf

Larry Moran:

Can factual information change people's minds? Most people assume the answer is "yes." After all, if people believe something that isn't true then exposing them to the truth should cause them to abandon their beliefs, right?

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Wrong. There's plenty of evidence that life is much more complicated. An interesting posting on MotherJones.com entitled The Backfire Effect, alerts us to a study suggesting that knowledge may even have the opposite effect to what you expect. ... The authors review the literature and conclude that substantial numbers of people are quite resistant to facts when they hold strong opinions. Surprisingly, some people actually become more convinced they are right after hearing facts that contradict their belief. This phenomenon [is] called "The Backlash Effect"...

This suggests to me that rationality, free will, choice, consciousness, self-knowledge, etc. demand that people use techniques to counter-act bias and failure-modes of human thought.

Idiots don't deserve apologies

First of all, there are not a lot of people who are craving my apologies. If people are present in the moment, I try to be respectful, and if an apology is due, I am more than happy to go the extra mile - I am a big believer in meeting people *MORE* than half-way. Because I am more interested in communication that my own foolish pride. But idiots who just spout off comments to preserve their pathetic fragile egos - they get the full brunt of my poison tongue. Let them pout, stamp their little feet, and walk away with hurt feelings. Also, when somebody comes at me with a condescending smile, I immediately see red. I get so angry, so quickly, I cannot imagine apologizing after I tear them to shreds. OK - (talking to myself) - calm down. Breathe deeply. Ah, feel better now.

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I apologize for my angry nuttiness, just now. Happily, I go through life without leaving a lot of people in need of an apology from me, because I truly feel that people deserve happiness and dignity. (I think... I worry to get a conflicting report from people who interact with me daily. I hope they would say the same thing...)

Don't put rubber hip waders in an apartment clothes dryer, you will start a fire...

I have some memories from just before kindergarten, and during my kindergarten year.

Rubber boot

Living in an apartment in Illinois, seeing smoke out our apartment's third story window, looking down from balcony, smoke pouring out of laundry room. Found out later that some fool put rubber hip waders in dryer, and they caught on fire.

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I also remember from Montessori kindergarten seeing a plasticine clay sculpture of a river bank, in a glass casserole dish. It was cool because they also used blue tinted water to show what part of the river bank was underwater. I went to touch it and hopefully add a tree, and I got chewed out by the teacher. I think it was a prop to show parents how stimulating their Montessori experience was. We never got to do anything so cool. I asked other kids about it, and they didn't know anything about it. What a gyp. I also remember being attacked by my own bed's comforter. I was alone in the apartment, and the bed comforter leaped off the bed and wrestled me to the ground. With the wisdom of age, I conjecture that this was, in fact, a stupid kid's dream. If I could go back in time and be my own big brother, I think my arms would grow weary from beating sense into my younger self's head. Hah! I remember trying to read "The Cat in the Hat" all by myself. I got stuck on the very first word "the". I pronounced it "TEE-HUH-EEE". When my mom told me that you couldn't always figure out words by just by sounding out the sounds of the letter, I completely lost interest in trying to learn to read by myself. Stupid kid.

Dive Into Mark: Universal Encoding Detector

Character encoding auto-detection in Python 2 and 3. As smart as your browser. Open source. More great open-source code from Mark Pilgrim.

>>> import urllib
>>> urlread = lambda url: urllib.urlopen(url).read()
>>> import chardet
>>> chardet.detect(urlread("http://google.cn/"))
{'encoding': 'GB2312', 'confidence': 0.99}

>>> chardet.detect(urlread("http://yahoo.co.jp/"))
{'encoding': 'EUC-JP', 'confidence': 0.99}

>>> chardet.detect(urlread("http://amazon.co.jp/"))
{'encoding': 'SHIFT_JIS', 'confidence': 1}

>>> chardet.detect(urlread("http://pravda.ru/"))
{'encoding': 'windows-1251', 'confidence': 0.9355}

>>> chardet.detect(urlread("http://auction.co.kr/"))
{'encoding': 'EUC-KR', 'confidence': 0.99}

>>> chardet.detect(urlread("http://haaretz.co.il/"))
{'encoding': 'windows-1255', 'confidence': 0.99}

>>> chardet.detect(urlread("http://www.nectec.or.th/tindex.html"))
{'encoding': 'TIS-620', 'confidence': 0.7675}

>>> chardet.detect(urlread("http://feedparser.org/docs/"))
{'encoding': 'utf-8', 'confidence': 0.99}

Great to know!

Hey! just realized how much of my happiness is under my control!

Thank you, Plinky. Instead of constructing the perfect day from start to finish, I just imagined plopping my head down on the pillow, and what would put my mind at ease before I saw logs. And it brought into focus that all this stuff is under my control. Which is a good feeling!

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Laffs

A very nice way to end the day is being silly with a silly wife and a silly daughter. The economist Bryan Caplan makes the case for less emphasis on trying to change or mold your children, and more emphasis on enjoying the company of your children. Goes without saying that this is fine advice for your spouse as well. It is very nice to share a little house with such interesting people. I don't mind the teasing.

Image by pcgn7 via Flickr

walk the dog, exercise

I feel much better about myself after I walk the dog, and exercise on the stationary bike. Much better than walking the bike and exercise on the stationary dog (?).

lost some pounds

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Seeing that I gained a few pounds can be a real downer. My liver does not need to be any fattier. I am not fattening myself up for Hannibal Lecter to enjoy.

Afriad of failure, and time slipping away

Image by Roby© via Flickr

Boy howdy, if we are talking about what really gives me pause, I would have to say the fear from seeing time spent in my life without getting closer to worldly success that will leave me rich enough to never worry about money again. I imagine I could have hit it big ten years ago, and so little is accomplished after so many hours spent. But that is crazy, because there is simply no such mechanism that removes all possible risk of financial disaster. Our little family is built on work done everyday and saving 2 bucks and spending only one -- and people who thought they had it made are, because of the housing crash, thrown into a situation they cannot fathom. Better to never get out of practice of working a little bit every day.

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I know in my rational mind that life is plugging away, doing your best, and using every little success as a base to save a little more, and take risks with whatever is left. I make the mistake of dreaming of some dramatic insight that would light above my head like a light bulb -- having this insight in the future, and suddenly, everything I need to do would flow effortlessly like water through a stream bed. But dreaming of that future day takes your focus off the daily work that life is really all about. That fantasy is just a haze over your eyes. Also, I really get a sickening feeling that my daughter's children will inherit a world that is dramatically harder to flourish in, because of ecological disasters. All signs point to water, energy, and food being more scarce for more people in more places. This turned out a little disjointed.

Busty Goldfish

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My daughter and I enjoy watching Disney's "Phineas and Ferb". I do a pretty sly Dr. Heinz Doofenshmirtz impersonation. This Post-It is typical of mindless doodling around our little household.

A lazy turtle and his bunny-baby

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

This is how I visualize myself and my wife. A lazy, depressed turtle (me) and a furious whirlwind hyper-kinetic bunny rabbit (the little lady). I am so jealous that when my wife feels stressed out, she bursts forth with angry energy and determined action. When I feel stressed out, I crawl into my shell.

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I love my baby for pouring boiling water into my shell (YEE-OUCH!) Picture drawn on a "Discmakers.com" printed catalog.

From Plinky's Jess - Abstaining from Evading Avoidance

This is the most inspiring thing I have read in a long time. I will just quote it all. From Plinky's Jess: http://www.plinky.com/answers/65380

Avoiding things, whether simple or complicated, is not a vice of mine because the hardest lesson of my teenage years was to avoid avoiding things. My parents divorced in my early teens and my mother, completely unprepared for the event, spiraled into a financial quagmire quite common among divorced women. By the time I was 15, I spent more time living with the stable members of my family and avoided my parents. That was mistake 1. At age 16, I started getting calls from creditors demanding that I owed them money.

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Apparently, my mother had taken out several credit cards in my name...beginning when I was about 12 years of age. There were also unpaid medical procedures in my name, furniture and appliances purchased via store credit...IN MY NAME (and more importantly, my social security number)! Since everyone told me it was impossible for me to have credit at my age, I ignored the issue. That was mistake 2. When I turned 18, my future was looking bright when GE accepted me into their leadership Internship. However, my elation was short-lived when the program manager brought me into her office to discuss my credit report. I spilled the details and both of us freaked out. She didn’t help me out of the problem directly. But she did say something that I’ll never forget. She said that by avoiding the problem, I was following in the footsteps of my mother. And that I would face far worse obstacles in life so conquering this relatively minor one would provide a good foundation for my future (in more ways than the obvious). With her help, I made a list of pros and cons about various resolutions, making the problem less frightening. I also contacted a family friend who was an attorney. For one week I made the man dinner at night while he made phone calls and faxed paperwork. In the end, I could prove that I did not live with my mother or benefit in anyway from the items she purchased on credit in my name. Oh yeah, I could also prove that they issued credit to a MINOR! Within 30 days the focus was back on dear ole mom and my report was as an 18 year-old’s report should be...squeaky clean. From that ordeal, I learned three things. First, never trust my mother (hey, better to learn this when you’re young enough not to be financially liable). Second, always, always, always pay credit cards off at the end of the month. And Third, deal with any problem immediately. Never avoid it. Life is too short to sweat the small stuff that arises from avoiding your problems (or chores, for that matter).

My comment:

> She said that by avoiding the problem, I was following in the footsteps of my mother. And that I would face far worse obstacles in life so conquering this relatively minor one would provide a good foundation for my future (in more ways than the obvious).

Image by janusz l via Flickr

Wow, this is an awesome mentor to have so young in life! Please, please, please call or write her to thank her, today, because people like this are one in a million. I am so happy you had someone with so much good advice to share at such an impressionable age! I would be so happy if my daughter met someone like that at the start of her working life. Cheers!

I just cannot say enough about how inspiring this story of a mentor helping a young adult is. I really wish for my daughter to have such a person in her life.