Israel attack Turkish flotilla - When the sane leave, the insane double down

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The "new, improved" Andrew Sullivan quotes Stratfor's George Friedman:

Andrew Sullivan - The Daily Dish - Israel Meets Its Own Fist

Stratfor's George Friedman, not a natural antagonist to the Jewish state, wonders if this could be a turning point against the Netanyahu-directed assisted suicide of Israel. After all, Israel opened fire on a ship from a NATO member, Turkey.  Should NATO treat this as an attack on every member nation?

The tougher Israel is, the more the flotilla’s narrative takes hold. As the Zionists knew in 1947 and the Palestinians are learning, controlling public opinion requires subtlety, a selective narrative and cynicism. As they also knew, losing the battle can be catastrophic. It cost Britain the Mandate and allowed Israel to survive. Israel’s enemies are now turning the tables. This maneuver was far more effective than suicide bombings or the Intifada in challenging Israel’s public perception and therefore its geopolitical position (though if the Palestinians return to some of their more distasteful tactics like suicide bombing, the Turkish strategy of portraying Israel as the instigator of violence will be undermined).

Israel is now in uncharted waters. It does not know how to respond. It is not clear that the Palestinians know how to take full advantage of the situation, either. But even so, this places the battle on a new field, far more fluid and uncontrollable than what went before. The next steps will involve calls for sanctions against Israel. The Israeli threats against Iran will be seen in a different context, and Israeli portrayal of Iran will hold less sway over the world."

Note that the flag on that ship was Turkey, a NATO member. Will Turkey demand invocation of NATO's Article 5?

And this will cause a political crisis in Israel. If this government survives, then Israel is locked into a course that gives it freedom of action but international isolation. If the government falls, then Israel enters a period of domestic uncertainty. In either case, the flotilla achieved its strategic mission. It got Israel to take violent action against it. In doing so, Israel ran into its own fist.

My own comments...

Why is Israel becoming so ham-handed of late?  The Dubai Hamas assassination was childishly carried out, so badly that todays Mossad was shown to be a shadow of its former self.  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/7258631/British-threat-to-Israel-over-Dubai-Hamas-assassination.html  And now this.  This was a gift from Israel to its worst enemies.

The more intelligent Israelis must have moved out of participation with armed response to Palestine/Hamas rocket attacks, leaving numb-nuts in charge, who are screwing things up.  The more intelligent Israelis must have moved out of participation with armed response because they could see it only spiraling out of control, to Israel's doom.  But the majority of Israeli voters are too fearful to elect anyone except the right wing - a right wing now full of idiots without check.

This is all at the worst possible time, when Israel's protector, the United States, no longer can work unilaterally, or even keep up the illusion.

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[Edit 6/2/10]

A blog post by Eliezer Yudkowsky: "Evaporative Cooling of Group Beliefs", about examples like Festinger's UFO cult in _When Prophecy Fails_, the sane (or saner) ones leave the group, and allow the group to get more crazy.  This would be my explanation about why Israeli military, paramilitary, and espionage assassination efforts have becoming more and more reckless and stupid.  The more intelligent Israelis must have moved out of participation with armed response to Palestine/Hamas rocket attacks, and have either given up on the Israeli state, or have moved to promote a two state solution by political means.

Leverage Against Israel... Whither Egypt?

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One thing that is not mentioned enough is that USA aid to Egypt is really aid to Israel, once removed. Only the disgustingly repressive state of Egypt can contain a Muslim uprising against Egypt's neighbor of Israel. If the Egyptian army had the USA aid source of funds removed, it would quickly join with the Islamists and attack Israel with rockets (cowardly but effective). The aid to Israel and Egypt has to be considered as two parts of a single aid package for Israel's security.

Leverage Against Netanyahu - The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan: "

Of course, the idea of using the lever of suspending aid has long been a non-starter in Washington so strong is Israel's support in the capital. But Tom Friedman today urged a policy of American withdrawal from the conflict altogether until the two/three parties show some minimal interest in moving forward:

If the status quo is this tolerable for the parties, then I say, let them enjoy it. I just don’t want to subsidize it or anesthetize it anymore. We need to fix America.

That no-subsidies-for-Middle-East-intransigents line would have real traction for many Americans, sick of spending their money and risking the lives of their sons and daughters in religious conflicts far away. (It could be used against Egypt as well).

"

Image by E|...| via Flickr

I hope Israel chooses a two-state solution. They cannot compete with the demographics of the Muslim population - a growing Muslim population relative to Israeli Jews. I hope they stop with the *new* settlements, and focus only with concrete walls. Some settlements will have to be *sacrificed* because there isn't enough concrete in the world to protect them (sacrificed - a.k.a. Jewish settlers will have to leave behind their best chance at their own homestead). Israeli civilian security - Muslim rockets retaliated with disproportionate force (a.k.a. killing Muslim civilians) with Israeli rockets, and not Israeli troops. The rockets falling upon Israeli civilians will *never* stop, the number will wax and wane, but never cease.

Nobody is allowed to put these plainly true sentences together - it is a political impossibility. I pray it happens, or there will not be a Jewish state for my grand-children to know. Fantasies on the Left and on the Right stir suicidal actions. Sadly, if you string together the political and military facts, and use them to draw a plain conclusion, you are "Un-Serious" or "Blood-Thirsty". So the suicidal fantasies on the Left and on the Right rule the day, right up to the day the world loses the Jewish state of Israel. The conclusion will be in less than a single generation.